Atlanta Falcons - Playoff Chances

The Atlanta Falcons are not only going to make the playoffs (which is a miracle in itself - see previous post), but may actually be the #2 seed! The excellent statistical analysis site Football Outsiders has the Falcons with a 55.5% chance of winning the NFC South, which will happen if the Falcons beat the Rams in Week 17 and the Panthers lose to the Saints (likely, with Drew Brees gunning for Marino's passing yards record).

But getting to the playoffs is only part of the story - How are they going to do if they get there? Football Outsiders have them with a 51.7% chance of playing in the NFC Championship Game (21.3% chance of winning it), and a 9.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, good for 5th best odds in the NFL (Titans, Giants, Steelers, and Panthers are above them in the rankings).

Now, we knew from the last post that this is a different Falcons team from last season, but are they really this much better? Let's go to the numbers, courtesy of Football Outsiders.

Note: Football Outsiders uses a proprietary system called DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value over Average, explained here. Essentially, DVOA measures how much better or worse a given unit (Offense, Defense, Special Teams) or personnel grouping (Defensive Line, Running Backs, etc.) is than the statistical "average" unit. Offense and Special Teams are better as the percentage goes up, and Defense is better the lower the percentage. Let's examine the percentages for the Falcons for this season as well as last, as well as any outstanding personnel groupings on either side of the ball.

Team Offense
2007: Offense DVOA = -10.7% (24/32); -6.9% passing (22) & -15.6% rushing (29)
2008: Offense DVOA = +17.6% (5/32) ; 40.6% passing (1!) & +01.5% rushing (14)

In 2008, the offensive turnaround has but one reason, and thine name is Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has a personal DVOA of 36.7% passing, which is not only tops for a rookie QB but tops in the NFL this season. Statistically, he may not lead the NFL in passing yards (Drew Brees, 4,609yds), completion percentage (Kurt Warner, 67.9%), or touchdowns (Philip Rivers, 32TDs) but he's the most successful quarterback on a per-play basis.

Also notable is off-season addition Michael Turner is second in the NFL in yardage (1491ys) and second in touchdowns (16TDs). However, his DVOA is only 2.7%, good for only 19th. The reason for the discrepancy in his conventional stats and his DVOA? A poor Success Rate (46%), and a LOT of carries (351, easily the highest in the NFL). The effect of his absurdly high number of carries is reflected in another FO stat, DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Here, Turner ranks 9th, with average DYAR/game of 156yds. The simple version of the two different stats? DYAR means a running back with more total value, but DVOA means a running back with more value per play. Essentially, Turner is so valuable because he carries the ball so much, not because of how successful he is with each carry. As long as he doesn't get killed by the Curse of 370, I'm okay with it. Worried, but okay.

Team Defense
2007: Defense DVOA = 14.8% (31/32); 18.8% passing (26), +4.6% rushing (28)
2008: Defense DVOA = +6.3% (17/32); 11.7% passing (17), +5.6% rushing (24)

The defense improved in 2008, but not by much. Something to note, however, is the team's variance (the consistency of the team's defensive performance). Atlanta had a variance of 11.2% this year, 28th worst in the NFL. This means that there's a lot of games where the defensive performance fluctuates wildly in one or both facets of defense from game to game, and watching the games proves this point.

However, there's a ray of sunshine in this gloomy news. The Falcons defense specializes in taking away the opponent's strength, and making the opponent beat them with their weakest unit on offense. Good examples of this are Week 14 vs New Orleans (where QB Drew Brees was held to 230yds passing, off of his average of 292yds/gm, but the Falcons defense gave up nearly 200yds on the ground) and Week 16 vs Minnesota (RB Adrian Peterson was held to 76yds, off of his average of 110yds/game, but TE Visanthe Shiancoe had 7 rec for 136yds and 2 TD's).

The bright spot on defense? The defensive line. Led by the resurgent John Abraham, the Falcons D-line is the 2nd most successful Defensive line in "Power situations" (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown), with only 52% of successful runs allowed (NFL average is 66%) and "Stuffs" (Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down), with 27% of runs being stuffed, good for 9th in the league (NFL average is 24%). Atlanta also sacks the QB on 7.0% of passing plays (28 team sacks), good for 11th in the league.

What This Means For the Playoffs

The Falcons are most vulnerable to a team that can shut down both facets of the Falcons offense, and execute both facets of their own offense. In the NFC, no team epitomizes this better than the New York Giants, the likely opponent for the Falcons should they make the NFC Championship Game (which, if the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds are to be trusted, both teams will.)

Passing Defense: -2.9% (9th); 7.8% in sack rate (5th)
Rushing Defense: -4.4% (10th); 27% "Stuffs" (8th), 56% "Power Situations" (4th)

Passing Offense: + 24.8% (7th); Eli Manning 18.8% DVOA (9th)
Rushing Offense: + 18.4% (2nd); Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs are 2-3 in DVOA (23.2%, 21.8% respectively).

However it unfolds, I'm just happy to be in the playoffs. The Falcons have found ways to win this season, and let's hope that hot hand continues in the playoffs.