Interesting rumors from around the net. The one about the Falcons is very interesting but I just do not see it happening.
Tom Cable stuck in Raiders limbo
Stuck in the limbo of all this is Raiders interim head coach Tom Cable and most his coaching staff. Wide-receivers coach James Lofton is the only one under contract next season. All the others, including the three coordinators, are out of a contract after Jan. 13. Cable speaks with Davis on a regular basis but has yet to be given an interview for the permanent position. His assistants were given a week off and won't return to work until Wednesday. They're all waiting to hear what Davis is going to do with them, or see if the next head coach will retain them. Davis has the final say in all such matters, but he let Lane Kiffin replace the entire offensive staff when he was hired in 2007. So, when can they expect an answer? Recent history suggests sometime after the weekend of the conference title games - in this year's case, Jan. 18. -- SF Chronicle
Raiders not moving back to LA?
Raiders CEO Amy Trask said there are "no financial constraints or issues" and that fans need not worry about the team being moved back to Los Angeles. "That's the danger of unethical reporting," Trask said. That said, the Raiders aren't raking in cash, even though last year's offseason spending spree might indicate otherwise. The Raiders are one of the lowest-revenue teams in the NFL. Forbes reported the Raiders' 2007 revenue at $205 million, better than only seven teams. The Raiders also play in one of the NFL's oldest stadiums, which doesn't help the revenue situation. The Oakland Coliseum opened in 1966. -- Sac Bee
Falcons Robiskie up for Raiders job?
Falcons wide receivers coach Terry Robiskie is the latest potential candidate making his way around league circles. Al Davis drafted Robiskie as a running back in 1977 and gave him his first coaching job in 1982. Robiskie climbed from assistant running backs coach to offensive coordinator before leaving after 12 seasons. His departure from the organization in 1994 did not necessarily go over well with Davis, which makes any return to the fold an interesting notion at best. A team official said the Raiders have not been in contact with Robiskie. -- SF Chronicle
Falcons might dump fan favorite Brooking?
A similar scenario could unfold this season with several longtime Falcons veterans and key players being let go or not re-signed. Safety Lawyer Milloy, linebacker Keith Brooking, defensive tackle Grady Jackson and linebacker Michael Boley could all be jettisoned. "There are a number of free agents," Dimitroff said. "It's going to be a busy time, mainly on the defensive side of the ball because they are up. There are going to be some well thought-out decisions there. They won't be emotionally driven." Brooking may be the toughest. He's played locally in high school and college and is a fan favorite. -- Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Showing posts with label Atlanta Falcons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Falcons. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Let's compare the records
Nice post, Josh, but I just wanted to post some stats for you here so you will shut up about your (18-1) Patriots. These are all-time win-loss records for the playoffs for our 3 favorite teams, the Raiders, the Patriots and the Falcons. Also I included over all records for the 3 teams against each other. Now I am not trying to brag, mainly because I have nothing to brag about, especially since both the Patriots and the Falcons beat my Raiders this year. And the Raiders will be back, just wait and see. And this does not prove my team is better than yours, I just like researching stats. And neither Josh nor I can say anything this year because neither the Raiders nor the Patriots made the playoffs. But the Falcons sure did and I am a bandwagon fan now. Go Falcons!!!!!
Raiders
25 wins 18 losses (including Super Bowls)
5 Super Bowls
3 Super Bowl wins
All-time against Patriots 14 wins 14 losses 1 tie
All-time against Falcons 7 wins 5 losses
25 wins 18 losses (including Super Bowls)
5 Super Bowls
3 Super Bowl wins
All-time against Patriots 14 wins 14 losses 1 tie
All-time against Falcons 7 wins 5 losses
Patriots
21 wins 13 losses (including Super Bowls)
6 Super Bowls
3 Super Bowl wins
All-time against Raiders 14 wins 14 losses 1 tie
All-time against Falcons 5 wins 6 losses
Falcons
6 wins 8 losses (includes Super Bowl)
1 Super Bowl
0 Super Bowl wins
All-time against Raiders 5 wins 7 losses
All-time against Patriots 6 wins 5 losses
Friday, December 26, 2008
Atlanta Falcons - Playoff Chances
The Atlanta Falcons are not only going to make the playoffs (which is a miracle in itself - see previous post), but may actually be the #2 seed! The excellent statistical analysis site Football Outsiders has the Falcons with a 55.5% chance of winning the NFC South, which will happen if the Falcons beat the Rams in Week 17 and the Panthers lose to the Saints (likely, with Drew Brees gunning for Marino's passing yards record).
But getting to the playoffs is only part of the story - How are they going to do if they get there? Football Outsiders have them with a 51.7% chance of playing in the NFC Championship Game (21.3% chance of winning it), and a 9.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, good for 5th best odds in the NFL (Titans, Giants, Steelers, and Panthers are above them in the rankings).
Now, we knew from the last post that this is a different Falcons team from last season, but are they really this much better? Let's go to the numbers, courtesy of Football Outsiders.
Note: Football Outsiders uses a proprietary system called DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value over Average, explained here. Essentially, DVOA measures how much better or worse a given unit (Offense, Defense, Special Teams) or personnel grouping (Defensive Line, Running Backs, etc.) is than the statistical "average" unit. Offense and Special Teams are better as the percentage goes up, and Defense is better the lower the percentage. Let's examine the percentages for the Falcons for this season as well as last, as well as any outstanding personnel groupings on either side of the ball.
Team Offense
2007: Offense DVOA = -10.7% (24/32); -6.9% passing (22) & -15.6% rushing (29)
2008: Offense DVOA = +17.6% (5/32) ; 40.6% passing (1!) & +01.5% rushing (14)
In 2008, the offensive turnaround has but one reason, and thine name is Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has a personal DVOA of 36.7% passing, which is not only tops for a rookie QB but tops in the NFL this season. Statistically, he may not lead the NFL in passing yards (Drew Brees, 4,609yds), completion percentage (Kurt Warner, 67.9%), or touchdowns (Philip Rivers, 32TDs) but he's the most successful quarterback on a per-play basis.
Also notable is off-season addition Michael Turner is second in the NFL in yardage (1491ys) and second in touchdowns (16TDs). However, his DVOA is only 2.7%, good for only 19th. The reason for the discrepancy in his conventional stats and his DVOA? A poor Success Rate (46%), and a LOT of carries (351, easily the highest in the NFL). The effect of his absurdly high number of carries is reflected in another FO stat, DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Here, Turner ranks 9th, with average DYAR/game of 156yds. The simple version of the two different stats? DYAR means a running back with more total value, but DVOA means a running back with more value per play. Essentially, Turner is so valuable because he carries the ball so much, not because of how successful he is with each carry. As long as he doesn't get killed by the Curse of 370, I'm okay with it. Worried, but okay.
Team Defense
2007: Defense DVOA = 14.8% (31/32); 18.8% passing (26), +4.6% rushing (28)
2008: Defense DVOA = +6.3% (17/32); 11.7% passing (17), +5.6% rushing (24)
The defense improved in 2008, but not by much. Something to note, however, is the team's variance (the consistency of the team's defensive performance). Atlanta had a variance of 11.2% this year, 28th worst in the NFL. This means that there's a lot of games where the defensive performance fluctuates wildly in one or both facets of defense from game to game, and watching the games proves this point.
However, there's a ray of sunshine in this gloomy news. The Falcons defense specializes in taking away the opponent's strength, and making the opponent beat them with their weakest unit on offense. Good examples of this are Week 14 vs New Orleans (where QB Drew Brees was held to 230yds passing, off of his average of 292yds/gm, but the Falcons defense gave up nearly 200yds on the ground) and Week 16 vs Minnesota (RB Adrian Peterson was held to 76yds, off of his average of 110yds/game, but TE Visanthe Shiancoe had 7 rec for 136yds and 2 TD's).
The bright spot on defense? The defensive line. Led by the resurgent John Abraham, the Falcons D-line is the 2nd most successful Defensive line in "Power situations" (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown), with only 52% of successful runs allowed (NFL average is 66%) and "Stuffs" (Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down), with 27% of runs being stuffed, good for 9th in the league (NFL average is 24%). Atlanta also sacks the QB on 7.0% of passing plays (28 team sacks), good for 11th in the league.
What This Means For the Playoffs
The Falcons are most vulnerable to a team that can shut down both facets of the Falcons offense, and execute both facets of their own offense. In the NFC, no team epitomizes this better than the New York Giants, the likely opponent for the Falcons should they make the NFC Championship Game (which, if the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds are to be trusted, both teams will.)
Passing Defense: -2.9% (9th); 7.8% in sack rate (5th)
Rushing Defense: -4.4% (10th); 27% "Stuffs" (8th), 56% "Power Situations" (4th)
Passing Offense: + 24.8% (7th); Eli Manning 18.8% DVOA (9th)
Rushing Offense: + 18.4% (2nd); Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs are 2-3 in DVOA (23.2%, 21.8% respectively).
However it unfolds, I'm just happy to be in the playoffs. The Falcons have found ways to win this season, and let's hope that hot hand continues in the playoffs.
But getting to the playoffs is only part of the story - How are they going to do if they get there? Football Outsiders have them with a 51.7% chance of playing in the NFC Championship Game (21.3% chance of winning it), and a 9.8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, good for 5th best odds in the NFL (Titans, Giants, Steelers, and Panthers are above them in the rankings).
Now, we knew from the last post that this is a different Falcons team from last season, but are they really this much better? Let's go to the numbers, courtesy of Football Outsiders.
Note: Football Outsiders uses a proprietary system called DVOA, or Defense-Adjusted Value over Average, explained here. Essentially, DVOA measures how much better or worse a given unit (Offense, Defense, Special Teams) or personnel grouping (Defensive Line, Running Backs, etc.) is than the statistical "average" unit. Offense and Special Teams are better as the percentage goes up, and Defense is better the lower the percentage. Let's examine the percentages for the Falcons for this season as well as last, as well as any outstanding personnel groupings on either side of the ball.
Team Offense
2007: Offense DVOA = -10.7% (24/32); -6.9% passing (22) & -15.6% rushing (29)
2008: Offense DVOA = +17.6% (5/32) ; 40.6% passing (1!) & +01.5% rushing (14)
In 2008, the offensive turnaround has but one reason, and thine name is Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has a personal DVOA of 36.7% passing, which is not only tops for a rookie QB but tops in the NFL this season. Statistically, he may not lead the NFL in passing yards (Drew Brees, 4,609yds), completion percentage (Kurt Warner, 67.9%), or touchdowns (Philip Rivers, 32TDs) but he's the most successful quarterback on a per-play basis.
Also notable is off-season addition Michael Turner is second in the NFL in yardage (1491ys) and second in touchdowns (16TDs). However, his DVOA is only 2.7%, good for only 19th. The reason for the discrepancy in his conventional stats and his DVOA? A poor Success Rate (46%), and a LOT of carries (351, easily the highest in the NFL). The effect of his absurdly high number of carries is reflected in another FO stat, DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). Here, Turner ranks 9th, with average DYAR/game of 156yds. The simple version of the two different stats? DYAR means a running back with more total value, but DVOA means a running back with more value per play. Essentially, Turner is so valuable because he carries the ball so much, not because of how successful he is with each carry. As long as he doesn't get killed by the Curse of 370, I'm okay with it. Worried, but okay.
Team Defense
2007: Defense DVOA = 14.8% (31/32); 18.8% passing (26), +4.6% rushing (28)
2008: Defense DVOA = +6.3% (17/32); 11.7% passing (17), +5.6% rushing (24)
The defense improved in 2008, but not by much. Something to note, however, is the team's variance (the consistency of the team's defensive performance). Atlanta had a variance of 11.2% this year, 28th worst in the NFL. This means that there's a lot of games where the defensive performance fluctuates wildly in one or both facets of defense from game to game, and watching the games proves this point.
However, there's a ray of sunshine in this gloomy news. The Falcons defense specializes in taking away the opponent's strength, and making the opponent beat them with their weakest unit on offense. Good examples of this are Week 14 vs New Orleans (where QB Drew Brees was held to 230yds passing, off of his average of 292yds/gm, but the Falcons defense gave up nearly 200yds on the ground) and Week 16 vs Minnesota (RB Adrian Peterson was held to 76yds, off of his average of 110yds/game, but TE Visanthe Shiancoe had 7 rec for 136yds and 2 TD's).
The bright spot on defense? The defensive line. Led by the resurgent John Abraham, the Falcons D-line is the 2nd most successful Defensive line in "Power situations" (Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown), with only 52% of successful runs allowed (NFL average is 66%) and "Stuffs" (Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down), with 27% of runs being stuffed, good for 9th in the league (NFL average is 24%). Atlanta also sacks the QB on 7.0% of passing plays (28 team sacks), good for 11th in the league.
What This Means For the Playoffs
The Falcons are most vulnerable to a team that can shut down both facets of the Falcons offense, and execute both facets of their own offense. In the NFC, no team epitomizes this better than the New York Giants, the likely opponent for the Falcons should they make the NFC Championship Game (which, if the Football Outsiders Playoff Odds are to be trusted, both teams will.)
Passing Defense: -2.9% (9th); 7.8% in sack rate (5th)
Rushing Defense: -4.4% (10th); 27% "Stuffs" (8th), 56% "Power Situations" (4th)
Passing Offense: + 24.8% (7th); Eli Manning 18.8% DVOA (9th)
Rushing Offense: + 18.4% (2nd); Derrick Ward and Brandon Jacobs are 2-3 in DVOA (23.2%, 21.8% respectively).
However it unfolds, I'm just happy to be in the playoffs. The Falcons have found ways to win this season, and let's hope that hot hand continues in the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons make the playoffs!
Last season, the Atlanta Falcons defined the term "dysfunctional".
The franchise quarterback was sentenced to 23 months in federal prison for dogfighting. The head coach ditched the team after 13 games to return to college. Many veterans players, led by TE Alge Crumpler, turned on the coaching staff. The team suffered through three different starting quarterbacks and fifteen season-ending injuries to finish 4-12.
This year's iteration of the Atlanta Falcons couldn't look any more different. New GM Thomas Dimitroff orchestrated a blockbuster draft weekend for the Falcons, bringing in a new franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan, his blindside protection in T Sam Baker, and a new starting MLB in Curtis Lofton. They gave big money to free agent RB Michael Turner (6 years, $34.5M, $15M guaranteed) and 3rd overall pick Matt Ryan (6 years, $72M, $34.75M guaranteed), and threw them both into the starting lineup immediately. They made defensive coordinator Mike Smith from the Jaguars a first-time NFL Head Coach, and gave him a team with eleven first-time starters.
The result? 10-5, with a guarantee playoff berth and a chance to win the NFC South and clinch the #2 NFC seed in the playoffs (and the 1st round bye that comes with it).
I'd say that's quite a turnaround.
The franchise quarterback was sentenced to 23 months in federal prison for dogfighting. The head coach ditched the team after 13 games to return to college. Many veterans players, led by TE Alge Crumpler, turned on the coaching staff. The team suffered through three different starting quarterbacks and fifteen season-ending injuries to finish 4-12.
This year's iteration of the Atlanta Falcons couldn't look any more different. New GM Thomas Dimitroff orchestrated a blockbuster draft weekend for the Falcons, bringing in a new franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan, his blindside protection in T Sam Baker, and a new starting MLB in Curtis Lofton. They gave big money to free agent RB Michael Turner (6 years, $34.5M, $15M guaranteed) and 3rd overall pick Matt Ryan (6 years, $72M, $34.75M guaranteed), and threw them both into the starting lineup immediately. They made defensive coordinator Mike Smith from the Jaguars a first-time NFL Head Coach, and gave him a team with eleven first-time starters.
The result? 10-5, with a guarantee playoff berth and a chance to win the NFC South and clinch the #2 NFC seed in the playoffs (and the 1st round bye that comes with it).
I'd say that's quite a turnaround.
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